mortgage

Has “Housing Stability” Become a “Housing Rebound”?

January 26, 2007

Mortgage bonds continue their slide after yesterday’s outright hysteria. Today’s New Homes Sales showed a 4.8% jump in December to an annualized pace of 1.12 million homes.  This is about 14% higher than July’s pace and some economists are wondering if “housing stability” just turned into “housing rebound”. Home supply plummeted from 7.2 months to […]

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Existing Home Sales Data is Weak, But Traders Find Strength

January 25, 2007

Existing Home Sales showed weaker-than-expected numbers this morning, but that hasn’t stopped the slide in mortgage-backed securities.  This is a counter-intuitive movement so let’s take a deeper look. First, the supply of homes dropped from 7.3 months to 6.8 months.  With less supply, there is a tendency for home values to stabilize and that is […]

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The Market Sees What It Wants To See

January 24, 2007

With the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet for two days beginning January 30, the Fed has entered “blackout mode” and no Fed speakers are slated for the next week.  Combine Fed Silence with lack of economic data, and market are moving on emotion and gut feel. That’s bad news for rate shoppers because […]

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Mortgage Insurance Is Tax Deductible in 2007, But With A Catch

January 23, 2007

Adding complexity to the home financing process, The Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 includes new tax code for homeowners.  The act grants itemized deductions for private mortgage insurance (PMI) and government mortgage insurance (MIP) expense premiums paid in 2007. For all loans originated in the 2007 calendar year, mortgage insurance is tax-deductible […]

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The Week In Review (January 22, 2007) : What To Watch For

January 22, 2007

Last week, economic data showed that the economy continues to grow at a healthy pace and that last year’s fears of an economic recession may have been overblown; wholesale and consumer prices were up 1.1% and 2.5% annually, respectively. With no clear recessionary indicators present in the market, long-term mortgages such as the 30-year fixed […]

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The Irrelevance of The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey

January 19, 2007

Today’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed that Americans are feeling terrific about the state of the economy.  The index jumped to 98.0 in January from last month’s 91.7 level. On a broader level, this is not an important piece of data for mortgage markets.  The idea is that a more confident consumer will […]

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The Housing Engine That Won’t Slow Down

January 18, 2007

Housing Starts handily beat economists’ expectations this morning and CPI showed strength, too, sustaining the market momentum that has trended mortgage rates higher over the last 30 days. The Federal Open Market Committee has repeatedly told us that it expects the economy to slow down in 2007, led by a weakening housing market.  And yet, […]

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Why PPI Exceeded Expectations And Nobody Minded

January 17, 2007

With all signs pointing towards economic growth, markets were not all surprised when today’s Producer Price Index registered higher than expected.  Mortgage markets are flat in response to the data. The impact of PPI is muted for three other major reasons, too: At 2.0%, the year-over-year increase in PPI is much lower than it has […]

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The Week In Review (January 15, 2007) : What To Watch For

January 15, 2007

In a week practically devoid of economic news, mortgage rates trended higher last week amid falling oil prices and surprise strength in Holiday Season spending. Investors are jittery about the U.S. economy.  Since it stopped raising the Fed Funds Rate this past summer, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly told markets that it is expecting an […]

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It Was “Happy Holidays” for Retailers in December

January 12, 2007

For all of the talk about the slowdown in consumer spending, it appears that this Holiday Season was a winner.  This morning’s Retail Sales report doubled economists’ expectations by showing 1.0% growth. This is just one more inflationary pressure in the economy and makes it less likely that the Fed will lower the Fed Funds […]

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How the Unexpected Bank of England Rate Hike Can Impact U.S. Mortgage Rates

January 11, 2007

In a “surprise” move, The Bank of England raised its benchmark by 0.25% to 5.250%. Only one of 50 economists surveyed had predicted the increase and its unexpected nature played a key role in moving mortgage rates higher today on this side of the pond. The Bank of England is equivalent to our own Federal […]

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Once Bitten, Twice Shy: ADP Says Jobs Were Lost in December

January 10, 2007

After last week’s data showed ongoing strength in the U.S. economy, there is a growing sentiment that the Fed will choose to raise the Fed Funds Rate before it begins lowering it. FFR currently stands at 5.250% and here is what markets are predicting over the near-term: After January 30-31 Meeting: Decrease to 4.750: 0% […]

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How Will Oil’s Plunging Prices Impact Mortgage Rates

January 9, 2007

This summer, oil crossed the $77 threshold per barrel and since then, it has been on a steady decline. Today, it crossed $58 per barrel. Lower prices for oil should reduce heating bills and gas pump receipts for Americans this winter. High oil prices are a stimulus for inflation so on the surface this would […]

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How Inverted Yield Curves Defy “Normal” Financial Behavior

January 8, 2007

Interest rates remain inverted, a market condition in which the longer you commit to lending your money, the less that you earn on your investment. Why is that a big deal? Imagine if a friend asked you to borrow money for two years you charged him interest on that money. We can list some of […]

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How Today’s Jobs Report Surprised Traders

January 5, 2007

This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report (i.e. the number of new jobs created for industries other than farming) registered a 167,000 gain in November This is tremendously higher than the 115,000 jobs economists had predicted. Markets were caught leaning in the wrong direction after an ADP report released Wednesday said that 40,000 jobs were likely lost […]

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Once Bitten, Twice Shy: ADP Says Jobs Were Lost in December

January 4, 2007

This summer, economists were predicting that 175,000 new jobs were created in June and then payroll processor ADP shared their own estimate of 368,000 with the markets. In a panic, mortgage rates moved higher because – well, what if ADP was right?!? The actual figure turned out to be 121,000. That major miss jolted the […]

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Sub-Prime Lenders Eliminate Loans To Riskiest Borrowers

January 3, 2007

Washington Mutual-owned Long Beach Mortgage announced yesterday that its underwriting guidelines are changing, effective Monday, January 8. Following the lead of a host of other sub-prime lenders including large-players Fremont and New Century, Long Beach is hoping to avoid the fate of sub-prime lenders Ownit, Sebring Capital, and Mortgage Lenders Network. All three closed their […]

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Vacation Days Are Good – Unless You’re The One Left Behind

December 29, 2006

As we head into the last day of trading in 2006, there are a lot of market players that have already left for the long weekend. That’s good for them, but rough for everyone else left behind. With so many traders on vacation this week, there are fewer buyers and fewer sellers at any given […]

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New Homes Sales Is Less Important Than New Homes Closed

December 28, 2006

Yesterday’s New Home Sales report revealed the following signs of immense strength in the housing sector and mortgage rates are moving higher on the news. Sales registered 1.047 million versus the expectation of 1.015 million — a difference of 3.15%. Sales were revised higher by 46,000 over the past three months. Inventory levels dropped to […]

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It’s not the House that matters, it’s the Stuff you buy for the House that Does

December 27, 2006

With many traders on vacation this week, the impact of economic reports on mortgage rates will be amplified. Specifically, be wary of this week’s New Home Sales and Existing Homes Sales reports. Since July, the Fed has repeatedly told us that housing will lead to an economic slowdown. As a result, markets have placed housing […]

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