mortgage rates

The Week In Review (February 19, 2007) : What To Watch For

February 19, 2007

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke carried the biggest stick in the mortgage rate market last week.  His “Goldilocks” testimony before the Senate Banking Committee spoke of favorable growth and subsiding inflation. Markets expected a harsher tone from Bearded Ben and that is why rates dropped post-testimony — the expectation diminished that the Fed will raise the […]

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Why Long-Term Mortgage Rates Are The Same As Short-Term Mortgage Rates

February 16, 2007

Interest rates are currently inverted, a market situation in which the longer you commit to lending your money, the less your return on investment.  It’s counter-intuitive so let’s delve a little deeper. Imagine if a friend asked you to borrow money for two years and you charged him interest on that money.  There are some […]

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Why Nations Care What Ben Bernanke Says To The U.S. Congress

February 15, 2007

The markets continue to show their appreciation for Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony yesterday and mortgage rates are falling in response. So, why do the Chairman’s words hold such sway over global markets?  Simple.  Buying and selling U.S. dollar-denominated securities is an integral part of central banking fiscal management policies worldwide.  When the Chairman says that […]

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Markets React To Bernanke’s Testimony

February 14, 2007

Addressing the Senate Banking Committee this morning, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the speech that most people expected: The current monetary policy (read: Fed Funds Rate) is at a level that both sustains economic growth, and tempers inflation pressures. In addition, inflation expectations “appear to have remain contained,” Bernanke said.  He called that “encouraging” and […]

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North Korea Stops Making Plutonium, But Will Markets Believe Them?

February 13, 2007

North Korea agreed to shutter its main source of plutonium today in exchange for energy and food considerations after months of negotiations with the United States and other countries.  The agreement did not specifically address the disarmament of existing nuclear weapons. News like this is a mixed bag for mortgage rate shoppers based on how […]

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The Week In Review (February 12, 2007) : What To Watch For

February 12, 2007

Despite the dearth of economic news last week, mortgage rates staged somewhat of a rally.  By the time the week ended. mortgage rates had retreated by half of the prior week’s major run-up.  The week was not without fireworks, however.  In prepared remarks, Dallas Fed President Fisher dropped a hint about future Fed rate hikes […]

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Three Fed Speakers Expected To Stay On Course Today

February 9, 2007

As the week closes today, three Federal Reserve Presidents are set to deliver speeches. The most well-known of the speakers is Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher.  Fisher is known for speaking candidly and has produced a plethora of sound bites over the years. Also scheduled to speak are Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto and St. […]

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England and Europe Impact Domestic Mortgage Rates

February 8, 2007

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank left their benchmark lending rates unchanged today.  Both alluded, however, to the need for future rate increases and these policies can have a direct impact on domestic mortgage rates. When strong governments issue debt (i.e. bonds), it is “guaranteed money” and, therefore, risk-free.  When nations with […]

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Plosser Tells Philadelphia: Rates May Need To Increase

February 7, 2007

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee held the Fed Funds Rate at its current level and indicated that the economy is expanding at an acceptable pace.  This morning, however, a Federal Reserve Bank President delivered a public speech to the contrary. In prepared remarks to the local Chamber of Commerce, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank […]

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The Two Methods To Generate Home Equity Are Not Equal

February 6, 2007

Home equity is created in one of two ways (assuming increasing home value and a non-negatively amortizing first mortgage). In the first method of creating equity, the homeowner pays down the principal balance on the mortgage.  This increases the difference between what is owed on the home and what the home is worth. In the […]

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The Week In Review (February 5, 2007) : What To Watch For

February 5, 2007

Last week was not for the weak-hearted as mortgage rates bounced around like a fumbled Super Bowl football.  In a widely-expected move, the Federal Reserve held the Fed Funds Rate at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting, stating that growth is “moderate” and that inflation pressures may be subsiding. Consumer spending represents two-thirds of the […]

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Upward Revisions Keeps Weak Job Data From Moving Rates

February 2, 2007

This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed that 111,000 new jobs were created in January, short of Wall Street’s 155,000 expectations.  The weaker-than-expected figure did not give mortgage markets a reason to rally, however, because December’s figures were revised higher by 39,000 and November’s by 42,000. Traders have shrugged off the data for three major reasons: […]

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The Fed Says: Housing Shows Signs of Stabilization

February 1, 2007

The FOMC left the Fed Funds Rate at 5.250% yesterday, signaling controlled growth in the months ahead.  Most notable was the press release’s inclusion of “tentative signs of stabilization” with respect to the housing market and the removal of references to high energy prices. Because the FFR did not change, the FFR-derived Prime Rate also […]

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It’s Not What They Do, It’s What They Say

January 31, 2007

It’s all eyes on the Fed today as the market sits patiently, waiting for the 2:15 P.M. EST press release.  Despite strong 2006 Q4 growth figures and a five percent spike in oil prices yesterday, there is an eerie calm while markets wait for the FOMC’s press release. In its December 2006 press release, the […]

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The Market Stops To Catch Its Breath

January 30, 2007

60 days ago, markets put a 36% probability that the Fed would lower the Fed Funds Rate by March 2007.  Today, that probability is zero.  If you’re wondering why mortgage rates have ascended so quickly, that’s part of your answer — inflation expectations are changing. Rates increased again on Monday and today the market catches […]

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The Week In Review (January 29, 2007) : What To Watch For

January 29, 2007

After a week of bludgeoning in which mortgage rates rose as much as 0.50% on the heels of a supposed housing sector rebound, don’t expect the fireworks to stop anytime soon. This Monday and Tuesday will be quiet with respect to economic releases, but Wednesday through Friday will be jammed-packed with mortgage-rate-moving data. The highlights […]

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Has “Housing Stability” Become a “Housing Rebound”?

January 26, 2007

Mortgage bonds continue their slide after yesterday’s outright hysteria. Today’s New Homes Sales showed a 4.8% jump in December to an annualized pace of 1.12 million homes.  This is about 14% higher than July’s pace and some economists are wondering if “housing stability” just turned into “housing rebound”. Home supply plummeted from 7.2 months to […]

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Existing Home Sales Data is Weak, But Traders Find Strength

January 25, 2007

Existing Home Sales showed weaker-than-expected numbers this morning, but that hasn’t stopped the slide in mortgage-backed securities.  This is a counter-intuitive movement so let’s take a deeper look. First, the supply of homes dropped from 7.3 months to 6.8 months.  With less supply, there is a tendency for home values to stabilize and that is […]

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The Market Sees What It Wants To See

January 24, 2007

With the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled to meet for two days beginning January 30, the Fed has entered “blackout mode” and no Fed speakers are slated for the next week.  Combine Fed Silence with lack of economic data, and market are moving on emotion and gut feel. That’s bad news for rate shoppers because […]

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Mortgage Insurance Is Tax Deductible in 2007, But With A Catch

January 23, 2007

Adding complexity to the home financing process, The Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006 includes new tax code for homeowners.  The act grants itemized deductions for private mortgage insurance (PMI) and government mortgage insurance (MIP) expense premiums paid in 2007. For all loans originated in the 2007 calendar year, mortgage insurance is tax-deductible […]

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