economy

Do 500 People Speak For The Whole Country?

July 12, 2007

On the week, mortgage rates are slightly improved as traders keep a watchful eye on tomorrow’s Retail Sales report. Largely, markets want to know how Americans are using their disposable income.  Are they buying big-ticket items like automobiles?  Are they buying luxury items?  Are they buying appliances and home goods? Retail Sales is released at […]

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How Revisions To Previously-Released Data Are Pushing Mortgage Rates Higher Today

July 6, 2007

On a stronger-than-expected jobs report and upward revisions to April and May’s figures, mortgage rates are moving higher this morning. Against an expectation of 120,000, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported that 132,000 new jobs were created in June.  This not a huge deal in and of itself. It’s the revisions that are causing […]

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Which Way Will They Go? Inflation Up, Growth Down, Or Both?

June 28, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a two-day meeting today and so this is a good time to remind yourself: The Fed does not control mortgage rates. Rather, the Fed sets the Federal Funds Rate. And the FFR is, in turn, used to determine Prime Rate. Prime Rate, in turn, is used to determine […]

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The Fed Starts Its Two-Day Meeting

June 27, 2007

The mortgage markets officially enter “Wait-and-See” mode beginning today as the Federal Open Market Committee begins their two-day meeting. The importance of the FOMC’s meeting to mortgage markets is all in the words of the committee as opposed to their actions (or lack thereof). After all, the group has not “done anything” in a year […]

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The Week In Review (June 25, 2007) : What To Watch For

June 25, 2007

For the first week in a long while, mortgage rates ended the week better than how they started. As we talked about last week, when there are no major data releases, the markets tend to move on momentum and psychology.  That’s precisely what pushed mortgage rates lower over the past five days. This week, though, […]

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In The Summer, Mortgage Rates Can Change More Swiftly Than Usual

June 20, 2007

It was another favorable day for mortgage rates yesterday as average housing data and momentum trading carried bond prices higher. Bond prices up, mortgage rates down, of course. All things considered, mortgage bonds should not have moved as much as they did.  But, this is the summer season and in the summer, fewer traders show […]

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What Role Do You Play In This Rising Mortgage Rate Environment?

June 13, 2007

The American Consumer keeps spending. This morning, the monthly Retail Sales report showed a larger-than-expected jump.  Even after stripping out elevated gas prices, the sales increase was more than double the expected amount. The economy surges ahead, fueled by everyday spending, and this does not bode well for the future of mortgage rates. The recent […]

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The Five Words Spoken By Ben Bernanke That Rattled Mortgage Markets

June 6, 2007

Behold the power of the English language. With just five words, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke rattled markets yesterday. In discussing how housing has slumped (and may continue to slump), Bernanke cited that weakness in the sector should not hold the rest of the economy back. This is departure from earlier this year.  In Q1, […]

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Federal Reserve: Inflation Remains “Uncomfortably High”

May 31, 2007

Tomorrow, the fireworks begin.  Or, continue, depending on your point of view. After a span of several weeks in which mortgage rates have steadily increased, markets are gearing up for a heavy day of data that could confirm the worst fears of investors everywhere: the U.S. economy is not slowing down. The Fed’s May meeting […]

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The Week In Review (May 29, 2007) : What To Watch For

May 29, 2007

Mortgage rates continued their climb higher last week as markets dealt with contradictory data about the health of the housing and the economy. New Home Sales registered its biggest gain in 14 years while Existing Home Sales reached a 4-year low; and purchases of “big-ticket” items such as computers, appliances and furniture unexpectedly jumped while […]

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Hot Housing Starts Figure May Push Mortgage Rates Higher

May 16, 2007

Each month, the Commerce Department releases a statistic titled “Housing Starts” that measures residential construction activity. This morning, the Commerce Department released April’s Housing Starts data (PDF) and the headline data reflected a 2.5% (±9.3%) increase in new construction. Markets had anticipated a 0.8% decrease.  This coincided with a decrease in available homes, as shown […]

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The Week In Review (May 14, 2007) : What To Watch For

May 14, 2007

Last week in the mortgage markets was thick with hype and thin with action. Whenever the Fed meets, there is potential for wild swings in mortgage rates.  And, although the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, it’s views on inflation and the economy carry tremendous weight with traders, with economists, with banks, and with governments across […]

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As Expected, Housing Drags Down Retail Sales

May 11, 2007

When consumer spending slips, it can send shockwaves through the economy.  Consumer spending, after all, makes up 70% of the economy. The best measure of consumer spending data is Retail Sales, a monthly figure describing how much money Americans are spending, and where they’re spending it. Retail Sales unexpectedly fell in April and that would […]

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The Week In Review (May 7, 2007) : What To Watch For

May 7, 2007

Data painted a dismal picture for the economy last week including tempering inflation readings, slowing job growth, depressed home sale data, and ever-higher gasoline prices.  This gave markets hope that the Fed may start to ease up on the Fed Funds Rate. But, while the stock market rallied on the news, the bond market continued […]

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How The ADP Jobs Report Impacts Mortgage Rates

May 3, 2007

If yesterday’s ADP Employment Report is any indication, tomorrow’s jobs report may fall short of the 100,000 new job expectation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ADP reported 64,000 new jobs were created in April. The ADP report has never been in lock-step with the “official” report from BLS, including this well-publicized event in June […]

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Jobs Report Is The 800 Pound Gorilla In The Room

May 1, 2007

There’s a palpable uneasiness in mortgage markets right now and Friday’s payroll report looms large. Remember: it’s not the actual data that matters — it’s how close the data is to its expected levels. All week, traders have been jockeying for position based on a projected 100,000 new jobs created and if the number is […]

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The Week In Review (April 30, 2007) : What To Watch For

April 30, 2007

Last week, a ranking Fed official delivered a “wait-and-see” speech on inflation and that roiled the mortgage markets plenty. After sitting in a tight range for Monday through Wednesday, rates exploded higher Thursday as markets abruptly changed their expectations of growth for the rest of 2007. Despite weak housing numbers, employment and consumer spending figures […]

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With The Next Fed Meeting 13 Days Away, Markets Will Listen For Clues

April 26, 2007

Mortgage rates have been fairly lazy this week, reaching a near flatline.  Even the much-talked about housing data didn’t do much to unperch markets from their current levels. This afternoon, Fed officials Yellen, Fisher, and Mishkin each speak to the public in separate appearances.  If data can’t move mortgage rates, perhaps opinion can. Of the group, […]

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The Week In Review (April 23, 2007) : What To Watch For

April 23, 2007

The economy showed signs of pushing forward last week, but major pressure on the average American consumer surfaced in the form of rising gas prices. Overall, it was a mixed bag for mortgage markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.6% last month.  This cost of living increase was much larger than expected and mostly […]

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How 2007 Gas Prices Are Pacing With 2006 Gas Prices

April 20, 2007

Gas prices are entering a very similar pattern to 2006 across the United States and — while it’s bad news for motorists — it could be bad news for mortgage rate shoppers, too. Last summer, gas prices averaged more than $3.00 per gallon for three main reasons: Fear of supply reduction from the Middle East Fear […]

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