economy

How Today’s Employment Data Is Hurting Mortgage Rates

October 5, 2007

On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its employment report for the United States. Last month, the jobs report showed that the economy actually lost jobs for the first time since 2003.  The total loss of jobs equaled 4,000 and contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower the […]

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Americans Will Spend $179 Million More On Gasoline Today Than One Year Ago

September 27, 2007

Economists worry about rising oil prices because it tends to generate higher pump prices for Americans.  With more money spent on gasoline, there’s (theoretically) less money available to spend on goods and services. Today, GasBuddy.com says that the average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline is $2.792, up from $2.344 last year at this […]

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What Happens On The National Real Estate Scene Doesn’t Matter To You

September 26, 2007

The National Association of Realtors® released its monthly Existing Home Sales report for August 2006 and, as usual, you should be ignoring it. The report discusses real estate on a national level and we all know that real estate is a local phenomenon. It’s not that the report isn’t helpful — it is.  The Existing […]

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What Would It Take For YOU To Feel The Pinch Of Higher Gas Prices?

September 14, 2007

As crude oil crossed $80 a barrel Thursday, the Wall Street Journal ran an interactive poll with its readers. What sustained price for gasoline would cause you to cut back on other household spending? The graph above shows the on-going results of the non-scientific study.  You can chime in, too, at https://forums.wsj.com/viewtopic.php?t=805. As consumers cut […]

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What The Price Of Gold Says About The Economy

September 13, 2007

Headlines today read that the value of gold is nearing its all-time high (adjusted for inflation).  The lay people would ignore this story, but those in the know understand that the price of gold is usually reflective of the state of the global economy. The spot price of gold tells a lot about investor psyche […]

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Why Mortgage Rates Fell BEFORE The Fed Meeting September 18

September 12, 2007

Mortgage rates “come from” one place only: the prices of mortgage bonds as determined by investors. The higher the price, the lower the corresponding return, or rate. Bonds — like stocks — are traded as securities.  An investor may buy Microsoft stock if he thought the company’s future looked bright, and he may buy mortgage […]

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The Week In Review (September 10, 2007) : What To Watch For

September 10, 2007

Weak employment data pushed mortgage rates lower last week.  Against expectations of 110,000 new jobs created in August, last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a loss of 4,000 jobs. The story made headlines all over the country this weekend but its connection to mortgage rates is not always clear.  Here’s how the jobs report relates […]

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How Today’s Jobs Report Impacts Mortgage Rates

September 7, 2007

This morning, the government reported that the U.S. economy lost 4,000 jobs in August.  Led by losses in manufacturing and in construction, this is the first time since 2003 that the economy has failed to add jobs in any given month. Markets had been expecting a job gain of roughly 110,000, but many players on […]

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The Week In Review (September 4, 2007) : What To Watch For

September 4, 2007

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke took the pulpit Friday in Jackson Hole but his remarks made little impact on mortgage bond trading. The Fed is aware of economic issues related to housing and mortgage debt, Bernanke said. He implied that the Fed wants more evidence that inflation has slowed before taking more drastic measures to help […]

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The Fed Descends On Jackson Hole, The Market Won’t Get What It’s Looking For

August 31, 2007

Today is a holiday-shortened session but that doesn’t mean that the markets will be on vacation. The day’s big event is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. Investors will dissect every phrase looking for clues about the economy and housing. More importantly, markets want some advance […]

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How Credit Cards May Be Replacing Home Equity As A Funding Source

August 29, 2007

As mortgage guidelines loosened between 2002 and 2006, homeowners often used their home equity to retire credit card and other consumer debt.  They did this by increasing the size of the mortgage and taking “cash out” from their home. As you’d expect, this type of mortgage transaction is called a “cash out” refinance. Well, now […]

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The Week In Review (August 27, 2007) : What To Watch For

August 27, 2007

This week is data-heavy so markets will finally get to focus on fundamentals instead of fear. For the past two weeks, uncertainty about the economy has led to psychologically-driven mortgage interest rate movements. Rising defaults devalue mortgage holdings and many investors are now expecting the defaults levels to rise even more. When defaults exceed expectations, […]

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Like The Fed Funds Rate, The Fed’s Discount Rate Does Not Control Mortgage Rates

August 21, 2007

Friday, the Federal Reserve lowered its Discount Rate by 0.50% in an effort to preserve liquidity among our nation’s banks. This has nothing to do with mortgage rates that people like you and I get for our homes.  Well, not directly at least. The Discount Rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from the […]

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The Week In Review (August 20, 2007) : What To Watch For

August 20, 2007

Again last week, financiers failed to answer the major question dogging Wall Street: What is the “right” risk model to use for mortgage lending?  The models of the past are being proven to have been wrong. So, why do risk models matter? Because the basic tenet of lending states that the riskier the loan, the […]

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The Fed Funds Rate Does Not Directly Impact Mortgage Rates

August 14, 2007

It’s been on the news a few times lately, so let’s address a key misconception about the Fed and its relationship to mortgage rates. The markets now anticipate that the Fed will lower the Fed Funds Rate within the next 45 days.  As a mortgage rate shopper, there’s not much reason to be interested.  That’s […]

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The Week In Review (August 13, 2007) : What To Watch For

August 13, 2007

After all the volatility and talk of a global crumble, all of the major U.S. stock indices posts gains last week.  It just goes to show you what a strange roller coaster ride we’re all on. Last week, the market bounced its way through: The Fed’s press release stating that inflation is still a concern […]

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Awaiting The Fed’s Next Statement

August 7, 2007

The stock market bounced back yesterday from Friday’s losses, adding 287 points.  There wasn’t much activity in mortgage rates, though, which remained relatively flat. Right now, it’s all eyes on the Federal Open Market Committee and their 2:15 P.M. ET press release. For as many people that want the Fed to make a powerful statement about […]

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The Week In Review (August 6, 2007) : What To Watch For

August 6, 2007

In a week in which several high-profile mortgage lenders closed their doors, not all news was bad. Mortgages rates for home loans bought by the quasi-government groups Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac actually dropped a bit. If you only watched the news, or market commentary on CNBC, though, you likely have the wrong idea about […]

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How Ben Bernanke’s Testimony To Congress Is Moving Mortgage Rates

July 18, 2007

Despite lower prices at the gas pump, the Consumer Price Index increased a little bit more than expected in June. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI rose 0.2% versus the 0.1% expected by economists CPI tries to answer the question “How expensive is everyday life?”.  Over the last 12 months, says the government, “life” […]

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When Everyone Spends A Little Less, We All Save A Little More

July 13, 2007

Weakness in Retail Sales data this morning is causing a knee-jerk reaction in trading circles, edging mortgage rates lower this morning. Against expectations of a flat reading, retailers reported a 0.9% decrease in sales volume in June.  This is the largest reported drop in two years. As we’ve discussed before, though, when looking at data […]

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